IPI Forecast Module

Scenario modeling of the IPI trajectory based on macroeconomic forecasts (GDP, NMB). The module calculates the Implied Equity Return required for the IPI to match the given macroeconomic trajectory.

Scenario Parameters

Horizon (Years)

Forecast horizon for IPI convergence.

Start Year

IPI Start Value

* "Current" assumes IPI is currently elevated relative to NMB.

Asset Weights (Basket)

Real Estate

30%

Stocks (S&P 500)

50%

Bonds (10Y UST)

17%

Cash (T-Bills)

Total: 100%

Macro Model (Anchor)

Alpha (CIC Sensitivity)

Beta (GDP Sensitivity)

Formula: IPI = IPI₀ × (NMB/NMB₀)^α × (GDP/GDP₀)^β.

IPI CAGR

—

NMB / GDP CAGR

—

Implied Stocks CAGR

—

Terminal IPI

—

Forecast Trajectory (Base 100)

Log Scale

Annual Assumptions

GDP%

NMB%

Cash%

Bond%

RE%

Stocks%

Year	Stocks%	IPI	YoY%
2027	-	-	-
2028	-	-	-
2029	-	-	-
2030	-	-	-
2031	-	-	-
2032	-	-	-
2033	-	-	-
2034	-	-	-
2035	-	-	-
2036	-	-	-